When comparing this winter to others that I have experienced in Grand Forks, this one is surprisingly mild. Upon experiencing an unusually warm November afternoon with temperatures in the 50’s, it caused me to wonder why this winter is seemingly less threatening. In the afternoon of this unusual, sunny, warm November day, I found myself in my apartment elevator with the mailwoman. To make comfortable small talk, we took turns commenting on the extremely pleasant November weather. The mailwoman mentioned visiting a farmer on her daily mail route. She explained to me that the farmer had told her that this winter is an “El Nino” winter. Upon hearing the name, I recognized that this meant that it would be warmer than usual. The mailwoman told me that the farmer expected all the things that I thought an El Nino winter would bring: warm temperatures and overall drier conditions. As we enter into December, it begs the question, what will this El Nino winter look like for us? 

By definition, an El Nino is quite complex. El Nino causes trade winds to weaken, pushing warm water back east, towards the west coast of the Americas. The warmer water causes the Pacific jet stream to move south if its usual position. This causes warmer and dryer temperatures across the Northern U.S. and Canada. El Nino and La Nina episodes may last anywhere from 9-12 months, but according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), they can sometimes last for years. The National Weather Service declared the official arrival of El Nino back in June. The NWS predicted these El Nino conditions to linger, but current conditions and predictions are updated as weather patterns change. Lucky for us in Grand Forks, the NWS stated upon El Nino’s arrival that its conditions are only expected to strengthen as the winter months progress. 

Here in Grand Forks, it is nearly impossible to tell what the winter months will bring. The winter of 2022 was extremely cold, with temperatures nearing record lows. Almost exactly a year ago, we had a substantial amount of snow on the ground, with frequent snow falls. Flight training was at a standstill for almost the entire month of November into December, causing students to experience extreme delays in their training. This year, however, is proving to be the opposite. With the El Nino winter, overall drier conditions have resulted in a lot less snowfall. Even through the end of November, flight training is progressing evenly, with shockingly few weather obstacles. Based off what the NWS has told us, we are expected to have warmer and drier winter weather than usual. Based on the NWS prediction in June, the El Nino conditions are only expected to strengthen, setting us up for an overall warm and dry winter.  

Sadie Blace is a Dakota Student General Reporter. She can be reached at [email protected].